Wout van Aert has never won Paris-Roubaix. That sentence still feels strange to type, given everything we know about the Belgian’s abilities on cobblestones. Three Strade Bianche titles, multiple Spring Classics victories, a track record on rough terrain that few rivals can match — and yet the Roubaix cobbles have repeatedly denied him the sport’s most brutal crown.
With the 2026 edition scheduled for Sunday, April 13, and Van Aert arriving in exceptional form, the question cycling is asking right now is simple: has his time finally come?
Van Aert’s Paris-Roubaix Record: So Close, So Often
Van Aert’s Paris-Roubaix history is a study in near-misses. His most agonising moment came in 2021, when he finished second behind Sonny Colbrelli in a dramatic three-way sprint at the Roubaix velodrome — a result that felt like an injustice to many observers who believed Van Aert had been the strongest rider in the race.
He has consistently been among the favourites in subsequent years, but injuries, team tactics, and the sheer randomness of the pavé have conspired against him. In 2022, a puncture ended his challenge at a critical moment. In 2023, he was riding in support of a team leader strategy rather than targeting the win himself. His Roubaix record reads like a compendium of what might have been.
The 2026 edition may be different. Van Aert rides for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe now, a move that has given him unambiguous leadership status at the Spring Classics. There is no team hierarchy to defer to, no internal conflict about who takes the Roubaix attempt. Van Aert is the number one, and the team is built around his ambitions.
His 2026 Spring Classics Form Is Exceptional
Van Aert’s form heading into Paris-Roubaix 2026 is arguably the best he has shown this early in the cobbled season for several years. The evidence is there across multiple races.
At Dwars door Vlaanderen last week, Van Aert attacked on the final climb and drove the race to a two-man sprint, only to be caught in the final metres by Filippo Ganna in one of the most dramatic finishes of the spring. He was beaten, but he was the aggressor — the rider who made the race what it was. Against anyone other than Ganna at full sprint speed, that move wins.
His Tour of Flanders result showed similar strength. He was present in the decisive group on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg, responding to the accelerations of Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel. Paris-Roubaix is a very different race — longer, more random, less suited to the pure climbers — but Van Aert’s sustained power output over a five-hour cobbled race is exactly what wins at Roubaix.
The 2026 Spring Classics power rankings have consistently placed Van Aert in the top three favourites for Roubaix, behind Mathieu van der Poel but ahead of a competitive field that includes Jasper Philipsen, Stefan Küng, and a resurgent Nils Politt.
Why Paris-Roubaix Suits Van Aert Better Than Flanders
There is a common misconception that if you can win Flanders, you should be able to win Roubaix. The races are related but not interchangeable. Flanders is ultimately about climbing — the Koppenberg, the Paterberg, the Oude Kwaremont — and the ability to accelerate repeatedly on steep gradients. Roubaix is about something different: sustained power on flat-to-undulating terrain, the ability to absorb punishment over 257km, and a specific skill in reading and riding cobblestone sectors.
On that second count, Van Aert is genuinely outstanding. His position on the bike, his ability to stay loose and absorb the vibration of the pavé, and his tactical intelligence on the cobbles have been praised consistently by coaches and rivals alike. He understands that Paris-Roubaix isn’t about attacking — it’s about surviving, staying near the front, and having enough left for the final sectors in the Arenberg and Carrefour de l’Arbre.
As the detailed Paris-Roubaix 2026 race preview outlines, this year’s route features particularly brutal conditions in the Trouée d’Arenberg — the star-rated 2.3km sector that has destroyed more Roubaix ambitions than any other stretch of road in cycling. Van Aert’s ability to navigate this section cleanly, while positioning himself correctly in the peloton beforehand, will be one of the decisive factors in his result.
The Rivals: Why Van der Poel Remains the Favourite
Being honest about Van Aert’s chances means being honest about Mathieu van der Poel. The Dutchman is the defending champion and the dominant force in one-day cobbled racing. He won Roubaix in convincing fashion in 2023 and has the physical gifts — explosive power, extraordinary bike handling, and a knack for being exactly where he needs to be at the right moment — that make him the most complete Roubaix rider of his generation.
Remco Evenepoel represents a different kind of challenge. After his 2024 Olympic road race gold and his growing one-day ambitions, Evenepoel’s ability to time-trial on cobbled roads makes him a dark horse for a top-three finish, though his sprint is unlikely to trouble either Van Aert or Van der Poel in a small group.
The Tactical Setup: Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s Role
Van Aert’s move to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe has transformed his competitive landscape. At Visma-Lease a Bike, despite the strong team environment, the Spring Classics leadership was sometimes shared or uncertain. At Red Bull, Van Aert is the man for Roubaix, full stop.
The team has built a cobbled support squad around him: domestiques who can protect him through the brutal early sectors, riders who know the race and can drive pace when needed. Having teammates capable of chasing back breaks in the Arenberg and then positioning Van Aert perfectly for the Carrefour de l’Arbre is worth seconds — and in Roubaix, seconds matter enormously.
For riders interested in how elite cobbled racing strategy translates to amateur training, the guide to training for cobbled cycling breaks down the physical and technical demands that separate competitive cobbled riders from the field.
Weather and Road Conditions: A Wild Card
Paris-Roubaix in rain is a fundamentally different race. The cobbles become treacherous, crashes multiply, and the physical toll of riding through mud and water for five-plus hours eliminates riders who would otherwise be competitive. Dry Roubaix favours the fastest; wet Roubaix favours the most resilient.
Van Aert performs well in both conditions. His 2021 podium came on a dry day; he has also shown exceptional bike-handling in races affected by poor weather. If the forecast for April 13 turns ugly — and northern France in spring is notoriously unpredictable — that is not necessarily bad news for his prospects.
If you’re planning to travel to watch the race in person, the guide to flying with your bike is useful reading for cycling tourists making the trip — many riders combine a Roubaix spectator trip with a riding holiday on the legendary pavé sectors.
The Verdict: Is 2026 His Year?
Van Aert’s Paris-Roubaix window is not unlimited. He is 31 years old in 2026, still in the prime of his career but entering the stage where every opportunity at sport’s most prestigious one-day races carries added weight. He is physically stronger than he has been, tactically more experienced, and now riding for a team that exists to support his ambitions.
The stars have not quite aligned before. The 2021 sprint result, the subsequent mechanical misfortunes, the years of near-misses — all of it has built to a moment that cycling fans have been anticipating for half a decade.
Can he win Paris-Roubaix 2026? Absolutely. Will he? That depends on Van der Poel, on the road conditions, on 257km of racing that has a way of rewriting every script. But for the first time in several years, the conditions exist for a Van Aert victory — and if he can stay upright, stay out of trouble, and arrive at the velodrome with the right legs, Sunday, April 13 might finally be his day.
