The Itzulia Basque Country is underway, and after Paul Seixas stunned the field in the opening time trial, the six-stage race through northern Spain’s demanding terrain promises one of the most compelling GC battles of the 2026 season. With the Tour de France just two months away, the Itzulia doubles as a critical form indicator — and the startlist is stacked with riders who have major ambitions for July.
Here are five riders who could win the overall classification, and why each represents a different threat on the steep, relentless roads of the Basque Country.
1. Primož Roglič — The Proven Basque Specialist
Roglič has an extraordinary record at the Itzulia, and despite a close call in the opening time trial — finishing just behind Seixas — the Slovenian remains the bookmakers’ favorite for the overall. His ability to gain time on short, punchy climbs that define the Basque stages makes him uniquely suited to this race.
At 36 years old, Roglič continues to defy expectations about age in professional cycling. His power-to-weight ratio on steep gradients remains among the best in the peloton, and his time trialing ability gives him a consistent advantage in races with limited GC time gaps. The question is not whether Roglič can win the Itzulia — it is whether the younger generation can take it from him.
2. Isaac del Toro — Mexico’s Rising Star
The 21-year-old UAE Team Emirates rider enters the Itzulia as one of the most exciting young stage racers in the world. Del Toro has shown remarkable climbing ability in his short professional career and arrives in the Basque Country with specific GC ambitions backed by a strong team.
What makes del Toro dangerous is his combination of pure climbing talent and improving tactical maturity. In previous stage races, he has occasionally been caught out by more experienced rivals in positioning battles. But his raw power on gradients above 8 percent is exceptional, and the Itzulia’s terrain — with its succession of steep, short climbs — should suit his explosive style. A GC victory here would announce him as a genuine Grand Tour contender for the Tour de France.
3. Paul Seixas — The Teenager in the Leader’s Jersey
The 19-year-old French rider from Decathlon AG2R shocked the peloton by winning the opening time trial, beating Roglič and a field of established GC riders. Seixas now wears the leader’s jersey — and while conventional wisdom says a teenager cannot hold it across six demanding Basque stages, Seixas has already defied conventional wisdom once this week.
Seixas represents a new wave of cycling prodigies who are competing at the WorldTour level before their 20th birthdays. His time trial performance demonstrated physical maturity beyond his years, and if Decathlon’s team can protect him through the chaotic stages that characterize Basque racing, a podium finish — or even an unlikely GC victory — would make him one of the biggest stories of the 2026 season.
4. Jonas Vingegaard — Tour Form on Display
After dominating the Volta a Catalunya with back-to-back stage wins and an emphatic GC victory, Vingegaard arrives at the Itzulia as perhaps the strongest rider in the world right now. The Dane’s form trajectory is pointing directly at the Tour de France, and the Basque Country serves as a high-altitude training block disguised as a race.
Vingegaard’s sustained climbing power is peerless on long ascents, but the Itzulia’s shorter, punchier climbs present a slightly different challenge. His ability to accelerate on steep gradients — rather than grind rivals down over 20-minute efforts — will determine whether he can match Roglič and del Toro on the Basque terrain. Either way, his presence elevates the race’s quality and provides valuable intelligence about his Tour preparation.
5. Egan Bernal — The Comeback Story
The 2019 Tour de France champion continues his long road back to the top of professional cycling, and the Itzulia represents an important test of where his form stands in 2026. Bernal has shown glimpses of his former climbing brilliance in recent races, and the relatively short, intense stages of the Basque Country suit a rider who is rebuilding toward peak fitness rather than maintaining it.
A strong Itzulia performance would signal that Bernal is approaching his best level and could play a significant role at the Tour de France as either a GC contender or a domestique-turned-opportunist for INEOS Grenadiers. The Colombian’s story resonates far beyond race results — his return from a near-fatal training accident makes every competitive performance a testament to resilience.
What to Watch For
The Itzulia’s defining feature is its relentless terrain. Stages rarely include a single decisive climb — instead, riders face multiple categorized ascents packed into routes that leave little room for recovery. This format rewards consistency and punishes riders who have a single bad hour.
The time gaps heading into the mountain stages will determine tactical approaches. If Roglič and Vingegaard have GC time in hand from the time trial, expect them to ride defensively on the climbs. If del Toro or Seixas hold the jersey, the established GC riders will attack relentlessly to dislodge them.
For cycling fans, the Itzulia offers a rare opportunity to watch the sport’s biggest GC names racing at full intensity in a concentrated, week-long format. And with the Tour de France looming, every performance here carries implications that extend far beyond the Basque Country’s beautiful mountain roads.
